United Nation's population projections by location.
Anklesaria Aiyar 0 Comment Once, India had a supposed problem called the population explosion. Today, in a dramatic reversal, India gets congratulations for garnering a huge demographic dividend.
The working age years proportion of its population is growing fast and will keep growing for decades, boosting GDP growth, while other countries suffer from falling workforces and ageing populations that crimp growth. India will add maybe million to its workforce in the next three or four decades while China suffers a declining workforce.
The supposed population curse has suddenly become a global advantage. This change has not been absorbed fully into popular or political thinking. The southern states have long been leaders in family planning, while northern states have long had the highest fertility and population growth rates.
Between andpopulation growth was The south has long been congratulated for its fertility success, and the north slated for its failure. Many countries now offer large incentives grants and free childcare to induce parents to have large families.
North Indians do the job free of charge. Today, the southern states are outraged that the terms of reference of the 15th Finance Commission mandate the use of population data in its complex formula for sharing central tax revenues between different states.
Earlier Finance Commissions used the state-wise population shares of the census, to avoid penalising states with good family planning and hence falling population share.
This benefited the south at the expense of the north. Now the 15th Finance Commission has been told to use the state-wise population shares ofending the reward for falling fertility.
Some angry southern politicians want the south to secede from India. However, as a matter of basic equity, every citizen is entitled to a slice of tax revenue, and to that extent, using the latest population share and not the share is equitable.
Moreover, the demographic dividend means rising population is now a blessing, not a curse. That constitutes a case for rewarding, not penalising the north. Readers will ask, how did the population explosion morph into the demographic dividend? When a poor country improves health and nutrition, its death rate plummets, while its birth rate falls only gradually.
Hence its population suddenly shoots up, and can look threatening. The ratio of dependents children and aged to workers rises, straining breadwinners. In the next phase, rising incomes and education induce family planning.
The birth rate falls. As kids of the preceding baby boom reach working age 15 to 65 yearsthe proportion of workers to dependents rises sharply. This is the demographic dividend — more workers for a given population. It is often buttressed by more women getting educated and joining the workforce, further increasing the demographic dividend.
Some studies estimate that almost half the growth boom in Asian miracle economies was due to their demographic dividend. India has now joined the happy band. However, in the next phase, the aged start living much longer, even as the birth rate falls below replacement levels.
The rise in aged dependents can far exceed the fall in child dependents, so the ratio of total dependents to workers rises. This strains not only household budgets but also national budgets, which provide large sums for pensions and healthcare costs for the aged.More than people, including around researchers, work at INED.
In terms of workforce and the extent and diversity of research studies, INED is one of the main national demographic institutes in Europe. 2 Demographic Perspectives on Family Change. including three studies that examine family change largely from a demographic perspective and one that drew on qualitative methods to identify specific groups in a larger quantitative study.
Another striking characteristic of modern families is the extent to which children are involved in. The Demographic Transition Model' Does the DTM still provide a 21st century framework for looking at demographical change in countries which are.
This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of . Demographic change in who becomes a parent, how many children parents have, and the context in which children are raised may affect the extent to which .
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